Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8926 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

DL 8926 · PHX → DEN

departs 2:02 PM MT · arrives 3:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±13 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

DEN (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8926 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?