Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8930
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
DL 8930 · SMF → SLC
departs 10:02 PM PT · arrives 12:46 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.