FI 688 · MCO → KEF

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 5:47 AM GMT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.87 in

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 688 · MCO → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?