Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
MQ 3467 · PHX → SBA
departs 1:51 PM MT · arrives 2:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 1.65 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.