OO 4969 · PHX → SMF

departs 2:47 PM MT · arrives 4:10 PM PT

Your aircraft is N708SK (CRJ7).

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4969 · PHX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?