Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 22 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, November 1 Today

QF 22 · DFW → MEL

departs 6:52 PM CT · arrives 4:15 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MEL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MEL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QF 22 · DFW → MEL

Odds over time