Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 1157 · HNL → LAX

departs 11:44 AM HT · arrives 6:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1157 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?