Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1312 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 1312 · IAH → TPA

departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1312 · IAH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?