UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

took off 11:47 AM MT · expected to land 1:10 PM MT (scheduled 11:39 AM MT → 1:38 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2128 · DEN → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?