Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2790 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 2790 · ORD → PDX

departs 4:23 PM CT · arrives 6:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2790 · ORD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?