Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

departs 4:34 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?