Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 434 · SEA → IAH

departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 8:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 434 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?