Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 953 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

UA 953 · ORD → MUC

departs 7:22 PM CT · arrives 10:54 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 953 · ORD → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?