Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1029
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1029 · BUR → SMF
departs 1:48 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from BUR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.