Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1227 · SNA → OAK
departs 9:11 PM PT · arrives 10:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
9pm departures from SNA are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.26 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.