Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 123 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

WN 123 · ONT → OAK

departs 3:51 PM PT · arrives 5:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ ONT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.30 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 123 · ONT → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?