Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1261 · BUR → SJC
departs 2:27 PM PT · arrives 3:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.