Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1409 · OAK → LGB
departs 2:41 PM PT · arrives 4:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
LGB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.