Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1434 · CMH → SRQ
departs 5:01 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.