WN 1434 · DAL → TPA

departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 12:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 8pm departures from DAL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DAL that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1434 · DAL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?