Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1450 · BUF → MCO
departs 8:56 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.