Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1471 · PHX → PDX
departs 10:47 PM MT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
38%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at PDX that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.80 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.