Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1495 · ISP → MCO
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.