Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1501 · BUR → SFO
departs 1:46 PM PT · arrives 3:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.