Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1504 · BUR → SFO
departs 8:56 PM PT · arrives 10:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at BUR that day
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.29 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.