Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1516 · OMA → PHX
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 7:08 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 24%
Thu 11/5 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.