Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 153
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 153 · PHX → SAN
departs 5:06 PM MT · arrives 5:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
75%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.78 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.