Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 161 · DAL → MDW
departs 9:49 PM CT · arrives 12:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 41%
Tue 11/3 41%
Wed 11/4 52%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.