Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1741 · TPA → MKE
departs 8:36 PM ET · arrives 10:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.54 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.