Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1784
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1784 · SFO → DEN
departs 2:16 PM PT · arrives 5:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.