Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1794 · STL → MCO
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.