Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1809 · DAL → STL
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
56%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.