Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1822 · DEN → TUS
departs 5:17 PM MT · arrives 7:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.