Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1822 · TUS → SAN
departs 7:04 PM MT · arrives 7:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.72 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.