Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1823 · DEN → TUS
departs 9:29 PM MT · arrives 11:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31 44%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 44%
Wed 11/4 33%
Thu 11/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.