Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 1864 · MEM → TPA
departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.80 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.