Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1869 · MKE → TPA
departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 12:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.