Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 1874 · DEN → RDU
departs 7:56 PM MT · arrives 1:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±9 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.