Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 187 · DAL → SAT
departs 5:14 PM CT · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.