Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Today
WN 2015 · MDW → OAK
departs 9:26 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 11/7 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.