WN 204 · AUS → AMA

departs 11:48 AM CT · arrives 1:26 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8535S (B738), coming in as WN 4997 from SAN: landed 11:35 AM CT.

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AMA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at AMA that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Arrivals into AMA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

AMA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 204 · AUS → AMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMA?