Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2138 · LAS → OAK
departs 10:47 PM PT · arrives 12:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.21 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.