Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2140
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2140 · TPA → SDF
departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.