Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2185 · IND → PHX
departs 9:09 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±7 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.10 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.