Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2246 · SJC → LAS
departs 6:51 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±15 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.