Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2301 · DEN → SBA
departs 9:36 PM MT · arrives 11:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.