Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2317
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2317 · SMF → LAS
departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 8:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±10 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.