Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2395 · SBA → LAS
departs 6:36 PM PT · arrives 7:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±14 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.