Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2410 · LAS → SMF
departs 3:39 PM PT · arrives 5:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.