Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 2415 · AUS → LAS
departs 7:46 PM CT · arrives 8:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±9 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.